It is no secret that the best way we watch motion pictures has modified dramatically lately. The COVID-19 pandemic compelled theaters to shut for months on finish in 2020, essentially reshaping Hollywood with the trade doubling down on streaming. Whereas studios have largely realized that they nonetheless want film theaters and income from the field workplace, it has been a really sluggish climb to return to a semblance of normalcy in that division. Sadly, a brand new report gives a sobering actuality. Briefly, we could by no means return to pre-pandemic requirements in relation to ticket gross sales.
PwC’s annual media and leisure outlook report was launched lately, and, per The Hollywood Reporter, the prospects for the field workplace are usually not nice. The agency expects the trade to complete with $9.6 billion domestically in 2025, up from $8.9 billion in 2024. These ranges will rise to $10.1 billion in 2026, $10.3 billion in 2027, $10.6 billion in 2028, and $10.8 billion in 2029. This seems like some huge cash, however these numbers will not contact pre-pandemic highs — not even shut.
The earlier home field workplace file was set in 2018, when ticket gross sales topped $11.8 billion. On the plus aspect, PwC estimates that we could lastly attain pre-pandemic ranges once more in 2030. The issue? By then, will probably be as a result of ticket costs are growing, with an even bigger concentrate on premium codecs like IMAX. General, attendance will nonetheless be down. Bart Spiegel, PwC world leisure and media chief, had this to say about it:
“Sadly, this full restoration is unlikely throughout the forecast interval. Nonetheless, we undertaking that by the tip of 2029, the trade will probably be on the point of a full rebound. In different phrases, 2030 would be the yr world field workplace revenues return to pre-pandemic ranges.”
What does that quantity to? There have been 777 million admissions in 2023 and 734 million in 2024, a yr impacted tremendously by the WGA and SAG strikes. 2025 is projected to see 778 million, rising to 823 million by 2029. However that pales compared to the 1.3 billion tickets bought in 2019. That is roughly a 37% drop in general attendance.
Film theaters and Hollywood have to adapt to the brand new regular
“It is essential to do not forget that trade revenues are in the end pushed by worth occasions quantity. On this case, whereas ticket costs are rising, admissions (quantity) are usually not anticipated to return to pre-pandemic ranges,” Spiegel added. “As a substitute, the expansion in world field workplace income is being fueled by larger ticket costs. These ticket worth will increase are pushed by a number of elements, together with enhanced infrastructure and services, technological developments, and rising content material prices.”
Globally, the outlook is not any higher. The worldwide field workplace is predicted to hit $33.5 billion this yr, in comparison with simply shy of $30 billion final yr, topping out at $37.7 billion in 2029. That is nonetheless shy of 2019, which hit a staggering $39.4 billion. Much more sobering? Netflix’s complete income was $37.5 billion in 2024 alone, illustrating the hole between streaming and the field workplace that now exists.
This all quantities to large issues that the trade at massive should reckon with. Theaters should make up income, which ends up in larger ticket costs and displaying extra adverts earlier than motion pictures. Although AMC is now attempting to reverse course on that as a result of unfavorable response from patrons. Sony Photos chairman Tom Rothman has argued for decrease ticket costs to extend quantity, however that does not appear to be catching on.
Studios, in the meantime, have to determine learn how to make motion pictures make sense regardless of larger budgets and decreased returns. Films like “Jurassic World Rebirth” can nonetheless be hits, pulling in $828 million, however that is nicely under the earlier entries within the “Jurassic World” franchise. For now, there are not any crystal clear solutions, however Spiegel did supply some hope within the report.
“U.S. trade historical past reveals that the sector has skilled challenges many occasions earlier than, with every part from the conversion to sound to the anti-trust laws of the Nineteen Forties, the arrival of TV as a mass medium within the Nineteen Forties and Nineteen Fifties, and the VHS revolution of the Nineteen Seventies. In every case, the sector recovered. It’s doing so once more now.”
One can solely hope historical past repeats itself and the trade manages to recuperate on an extended sufficient timeline.
