Common Leisure Corp. (UE) has revised its 2025 earnings forecast downward, signaling a difficult 12 months forward for the corporate. The gaming and leisure big, which operates casinos and gaming machines in each Japan and the Philippines, has seen its EBITDA expectations for 2025 fall considerably. In keeping with analysts from S&P International Rankings, UE’s company-wide EBITDA is predicted to drop to ¥18 billion (US$115 million) in 2025, down from ¥21.2 billion in 2024. Regardless of efforts to stabilize its core operations, the corporate faces continued headwinds, with a restoration forecasted to stay sluggish till 2026.
On line casino Resort Enterprise Struggles within the Philippines
Essentially the most important contributor to the corporate’s downturn is its on line casino resort operations within the Philippines, particularly Tiger Resort, Leisure and Leisure Inc., UE’s subsidiary. The on line casino resort has confronted a gradual decline in gross gaming income (GGR), with double-digit declines year-on-year for a number of consecutive intervals. This decline has been pushed by decreased VIP buyer exercise, fewer worldwide guests—significantly from China—and rising competitors inside the native on line casino market.
S&P International expects the on line casino resort’s EBITDA to fall to ¥12 billion in 2025, a considerable drop from the ¥19 billion recorded in 2024, which already marked a decline in efficiency. Regardless of these challenges, analysts stay cautiously optimistic about future restoration efforts. “The corporate will proceed efforts to revive and stabilize efficiency, aiming to draw extra prospects, although profitability will seemingly stay pressured by greater advertising bills,” stated the report.
UE’s gaming machines division, working in Japan, has additionally confronted difficulties within the wake of its 2024 failure to go compliance assessments for brand spanking new fashions. Gross sales inside the division have been unpredictable, and whereas there’s some expectation that the division might stabilize within the coming years, the forecast for 2025 stays modest. S&P International anticipates EBITDA of roughly ¥12 billion in 2025, which is a considerable drop from the ¥25 billion generated in 2023.
Regardless of these challenges, the corporate’s gaming machines enterprise is projected to see some restoration after 2025, with EBITDA more likely to stabilize round ¥15 billion in 2026. Nonetheless, even this stabilization would nonetheless characterize solely round 60% of the extent seen in 2023.
Debt and Liquidity Issues Stay
One of many main monetary issues for UE is its excessive debt load. The corporate’s debt-to-EBITDA ratio is predicted to deteriorate to round 10x by the tip of 2025, up from 8.9x on the finish of 2024. This rise within the ratio alerts a heavier burden for the corporate by way of debt compensation and monetary sustainability. S&P International forecasts that this ratio will stay elevated for no less than one other 12 months, even with a projected restoration in EBITDA from 2026 onward.
Regardless of these issues, the corporate’s liquidity is taken into account manageable within the quick time period. UE’s money and deposits grew to ¥27.4 billion by the tip of September 2025, up from ¥21.2 billion on the finish of March 2025, largely attributable to asset gross sales and compensation funds. With comparatively low debt maturities anticipated over the subsequent 12 months—between ¥1 billion and ¥2 billion—the corporate ought to be capable to keep liquidity with out dealing with speedy monetary misery.
Whereas the corporate’s monetary scenario stays underneath stress, S&P International maintains a secure outlook for UE, acknowledging that the corporate has carried out measures to stabilize its key companies. Nonetheless, the company has warned that additional deterioration in EBITDA or a drop in money reserves beneath ¥25 billion might result in a downgrade. Given the sluggish restoration trajectory of each UE’s gaming machine and on line casino resort companies, the probability of an improve is low within the close to time period.
