Key Factors
— Argentina posted a major fiscal surplus of AR$3.13 trillion (~$2.2 billion) in January 2026, swinging sharply from December’s AR$2.88 trillion deficit — Financial system Minister Luis Caputo introduced the end result as an IMF technical mission reviewed the nation’s fiscal targets
— Together with debt curiosity funds of AR$2.02 trillion, the monetary surplus got here in at AR$1.11 trillion — notable as a result of January and July are the heaviest debt service months attributable to Bonares and World bond coupon funds
— The end result extends Milei’s fiscal streak into a 3rd consecutive 12 months, however the 2026 goal of two.2% of GDP major surplus agreed with the IMF is drawing skepticism from economists who see slowing tax income and restricted room for additional spending cuts
Argentina’s fiscal self-discipline beneath President Javier Milei has develop into probably the most carefully watched financial experiment in Latin America. On Wednesday, Financial system Minister Luis Caputo reported that the nationwide public sector posted a major surplus of AR$3.13 trillion ($2.2 billion) in January, rebounding from a seasonal December deficit of AR$2.88 trillion. After subtracting AR$2.02 trillion in web curiosity funds — January and July carry the 12 months’s heaviest debt service load, with Bonares and World bond coupons coming due — the monetary surplus was AR$1.11 trillion.
The end result marks the 14th month of major surplus within the final 15 beneath Milei. Full-year 2025 closed with a major surplus of 1.4% of GDP and a monetary surplus of 0.2%, down barely from 2024’s 1.8% and 0.3% respectively however nonetheless exceptional by Argentine requirements. Caputo famous it was the primary time since 2008 that Argentina achieved two consecutive years of economic surplus, and the primary time within the historic collection starting in 1993 that it did so whereas assembly all public debt service obligations. Since taking workplace in December 2023, Milei has lower tax burdens by an estimated 2.5% of GDP whereas sustaining the excess — a mixture he argues proves austerity and progress can coexist.
The IMF check
The January information dropped whereas an IMF technical mission was in Buenos Aires for the primary overview of the $20 billion mortgage program accepted in April 2025. The overview centered on two strain factors: a reserve accumulation goal that Argentina missed on the finish of 2025 (by roughly $2.6 billion), and the 2026 fiscal goal of a 2.2% major surplus. Economists are flagging the goal as demanding. Tax income is softening because the economic system decelerates from its post-crisis rebound, and after two years of aggressive cuts — merging ministries, slashing subsidies, decreasing the fleet of state companies — the low-hanging fruit is gone. Milei’s first legislatively accepted price range, handed December 26 with $102 billion in spending and 5% GDP progress assumptions, enshrines fiscal stability as legislation. However a price range projection will not be a end result. The January surplus suggests the federal government intends to hit the quantity. Whether or not the economic system cooperates for the remaining eleven months is a distinct query.
