What issues immediately
1 Navalny poisoning confirmed — 5 European nations reveal dart frog toxin killed Kremlin critic; Moscow rejects findings as “propaganda hoax”; Rubio calls report “troubling” in Bratislava; UK informs OPCW of Chemical Weapons Conference breach; second anniversary of Navalny demise
2 Rubio indicators nuclear pact in Budapest — Secretary of State meets Orbán on civilian nuclear cooperation; presses on Russian vitality dependency forward of April 12 election; Slovakia pledges F-16 purchases and US LNG growth; EU’s twentieth Russia sanctions bundle anticipated inside eight days
3 UK and German navy chiefs situation joint rearmament name — Knighton and Breuer publish Guardian/Die Welt article warning Russia’s posture has “decisively shifted westward”; UK publicizes HMS Prince of Wales Arctic deployment and 6 new munitions factories; NATO commits to five% GDP defence spending by 2035
4 STOXX 600 opens week up 0.1% — Defence shares dip on MSC peace rhetoric; Dassault Systèmes halted then tumbles 10% on dealer downgrade; Rio Tinto suspends Simandou after fatality; NatWest launches £750M buyback; US markets closed for Presidents’ Day
Essential
Ukraine — Geneva Talks Feb 17–18
Navalny poisoning confirmed hardens atmosphere; Geneva trilateral talks Tuesday; 1,500 Kyiv buildings with out heating; ex-energy minister arrested; support anticipated by Feb 24
Essential
Iran — Rebellion & US Navy Posture
200K+ protest in Munich; Pahlavi addresses MSC; demise toll estimates 7,000–30,000 since Dec; Trump deploys 2nd service group; Iran nuclear talks Tuesday Geneva; Witkoff and Kushner anticipated
Escalating
European Defence Autonomy
MSC crystallises consensus on strategic independence; Merz–Macron nuclear deterrent talks; S&P forecasts EU defence spending at €800bn by 2029; Kallas previews safety technique; Rubio softer however belief deficit persists
Tense
Transatlantic Commerce & Greenland
Greenland tariff menace retracted after Rutte framework; Golden Dome talks proceed; EU–US commerce deal suspended by Parliament; 15% reciprocal tariffs in drive
The Day Europe Stopped Wanting Away
Monday delivered three indicators that Europe’s safety structure is being rewritten in actual time. The Navalny poisoning affirmation — epibatidine from Ecuadorian dart frogs, confirmed by 5 nations’ labs — eliminates any residual ambiguity about Moscow’s strategies and motives. Approaching the second anniversary of his demise and the day earlier than Geneva peace talks, it destroys no matter diplomatic goodwill Medinsky might need hoped to hold into negotiations. Then the Knighton-Breuer joint article in The Guardian and Die Welt: two of NATO’s most senior navy officers publicly telling their residents that “weak point invitations aggression.” This isn’t convention rhetoric — it’s the operational command construction making ready public opinion for everlasting rearmament. And Rubio in Budapest, signing a nuclear pact with Orbán whereas urgent him on Russian vitality — a reminder that Washington is utilizing bilateral offers to fragment European solidarity on sanctions simply because the EU prepares its twentieth bundle. The Strait of Hormuz workout routines add a Center Jap overlay to a day already dense with European safety selections. Markets absorbed all of it with attribute calm — STOXX 600 up 0.1%, defence shares dipping on Geneva hopes — however the structural thesis is unchanged: Europe is arming, and the query is simply how briskly.
LONDON / BERLINNavalny Confirmed Poisoned by Kremlin with Dart Frog Toxin
On the second anniversary of Alexei Navalny’s demise, the findings launched Saturday by the UK, France, Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands dominated Monday’s European agenda. Lab evaluation of smuggled tissue samples “conclusively confirmed” epibatidine — a neurotoxin from Ecuadorian poison dart frogs — in Navalny’s physique. The 5 governments acknowledged that solely Russia had “the means, motive and alternative” to deploy the toxin throughout his imprisonment. Moscow rejected the findings Monday, with spokesperson Maria Zakharova dismissing them as a “Western propaganda hoax.” Rubio known as the report “troubling” in Bratislava on Sunday. The UK has knowledgeable the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons of Russia’s breach of the Chemical Weapons Conference. The findings harden the diplomatic atmosphere forward of Tuesday’s Geneva peace talks.
BUDAPESTRubio Indicators Nuclear Pact in Budapest — Presses Orbán on Russia
Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Budapest on Monday to signal a civilian nuclear cooperation settlement with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, capping a diplomatic swing from Munich by Bratislava. The deal, heralded by Trump, deepens US-Hungarian vitality ties at a second when Orbán faces his most severe electoral problem since retaking energy in 2010, with the April 12 vote approaching. In Bratislava on Sunday, Slovak PM Robert Fico courted Rubio with a pledge to purchase extra F-16s and develop US LNG purchases. Rubio is predicted to press Orbán on Russian vitality dependency — a delicate subject because the EU prepares its twentieth sanctions bundle on Russia, anticipated inside eight days. Orbán, a founding member of Trump’s Board of Peace initiative, will push his “peace vs conflict” message and foyer for a Trump go to in March. The Budapest cease comes because the EU’s new “dynamic value cap” on Russian crude sits at $44.10 per barrel and the bloc debates find out how to implement vitality sanctions with out fracturing Central European solidarity.
LONDON / BERLINUK and German Navy Chiefs Situation Joint Rearmament Name
MARKETSEuropean Earnings Break up: Safran Soars, L’Oréal Stumbles, Dassault Halted
Friday’s earnings session delivered stark divergence throughout European sectors. French aerospace agency Safran led the STOXX 600, surging 8% after reporting a 15% income improve to €31.3 billion and web revenue up 3.5% to €3.17 billion. NatWest beat This autumn estimates with £1.48 billion revenue (vs £1.24bn anticipated) and launched a £750 million share buyback on Monday, sending shares up 4.3%. Spain’s CaixaBank posted €5.89 billion in web revenue, above consensus, climbing dividends 15%. On the damaging aspect, L’Oréal fell 4% and Supply Hero dropped 4% on disappointing updates. Monday’s largest casualty was Dassault Systèmes, whose shares have been briefly halted earlier than plunging 10% after dealer AlphaValue lower its ranking to Scale back, citing AI monetisation issues. Mining shares additionally dragged, with Rio Tinto falling 2% after suspending its Simandou iron-ore undertaking in Guinea following a fatality.
TEHRAN / GENEVAIran Guards Train in Hormuz as Geneva Hosts Twin Negotiations Tuesday
The MSC produced the clearest consensus but on European defence autonomy, with Merz and Macron acknowledging Franco-German nuclear deterrent discussions, Kallas previewing a complete safety technique, and S&P projecting EU defence budgets will attain €800 billion by 2029. But European defence shares dipped Monday: Rheinmetall fell 1%, Leonardo dropped 2%, and Saab, Renk, and Kongsberg all slipped because the conciliatory tone from MSC raised hopes for progress in Geneva. The Stoxx Europe Aerospace & Defence index was 1.53% decrease. The paradox is structural: each diplomatic advance towards peace in Ukraine quickly pressures the sector Europeans are actually dedicated to scaling completely. Czechoslovak Group’s deliberate Amsterdam itemizing at a €30 billion valuation — with BlackRock and Artisan Companions committing €900 million — reveals institutional capital betting on the long-term rearmament thesis regardless of short-term volatility.
FRANKFURTLagarde Makes EUR Repo Strains Everlasting — SCOTUS Tariff Ruling Looms
ECB President Christine Lagarde used the Munich Safety Convention to announce that EUR repo traces will develop into a everlasting a part of the ECB toolkit from Q3 2026, a structural shift in European financial plumbing designed to construct monetary resilience amid rising geopolitical stress. She warned that Europe should construct resilience “even when it’s quickly dearer.” Individually, the US Supreme Court docket has scheduled February 20, 24, and 25 as opinion-release dates — intently watched for a possible ruling on Trump’s use of nationwide emergency powers to impose tariffs on European allies. A ruling hanging down emergency tariff authority would basically reshape the EU-US commerce panorama, whereas an affirmation would entrench the 15% reciprocal tariffs presently in drive. The EUR held close to $1.187, with the ECB at 2.0% and eurozone inflation at 1.7% — under goal — giving Lagarde room to soak up the fiscal growth implied by the defence spending supercycle.
KYIVUkraine Vitality Disaster Deepens as Ex-Minister Arrested for Corruption
Monday crystallised three dynamics that can outline European safety this week and past. The Navalny epibatidine revelation is greater than a headline — it offers forensic proof of Russian state organic weapons use towards a home opponent, and it arrives exactly as Medinsky prepares to barter in Geneva on Tuesday. European diplomats will discover it more durable to separate arms-control violations from peace-talk pragmatism. In the meantime, Rubio’s Budapest swing — nuclear pact with Orbán, F-16 gross sales in Bratislava — reveals Washington utilizing bilateral vitality and defence offers to domesticate Central European allies on phrases that won’t align with Brussels’ most popular sanctions structure. The EU’s twentieth Russia sanctions bundle, anticipated inside eight days, will take a look at whether or not Orbán’s new American partnership insulates him from collective self-discipline. The Knighton-Breuer joint rearmament article is the week’s most consequential sign: NATO’s operational commanders publicly making ready their populations for sustained navy funding, with concrete deliverables — six British munitions factories, German troops repositioned eastward, HMS Prince of Wales heading to the Arctic. The SCOTUS tariff ruling dates (Feb 20, 24, 25) add a wildcard: a choice hanging down emergency tariff authority would remodel European commerce coverage in a single day. Markets processed the day quietly — STOXX 600 +0.1%, defence dipping on Geneva optimism, NatWest main a banking rebound — however the structural course is unmistakable. Europe is arming, decoupling from Russian vitality, and constructing institutional resilience (Lagarde’s everlasting EUR repo traces). The query is not whether or not, however whether or not quick sufficient.
Europe Intelligence Transient
Weekend Consolidated Version · Monday, February 16, 2026
